Natural Hazard Mortality in Nepal

Using publicly available disaster database DesInventar from 1971 – 2011, we analyzed which hazard contributes the most to fatalities in Nepal; how mortality is clustered at the village level; and how they are distributed across temporal scale. It is published in peer-reviewed journal Environmental Hazards and can be downloaded from the below link.

http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/mZu8ZrEItXCMRJtYBwY8/full

Spatial and temporal analysis of natural hazard mortality in Nepal

Sanam K. Aksha, Luke Juran, & Lynn M. Resler

Abstract:

The impacts of natural hazards are typically measured in terms of loss of human lives and economic damage, and recent studies demonstrate that deaths attributed to natural hazards have increased. Using the publicly available DesInventar database, we examined spatial and temporal patterns of natural hazard mortality from 1971 to 2011 at the district and village levels of Nepal and identified natural hazards that contributed most to mortality. Spatial clusters of mortality at the district and village levels were detected using local and global spatial autocorrelation measures (Moran’s I). Landslides (41.91%) and floods (32.52%) accounted for approximately three quarters of natural hazard mortalities over the study period. A Global Moran’s I test positively confirmed clustering at both the district (0.199, p < 0.001) and village (0.256, p < 0.001) levels, whereas a Local Moran’s I test further detected clustering in the central and terai regions, where dynamic geologic and geomorphic processes combined with human-environment interaction constitute major risk factors. A better understanding of multihazard mortality patterns across geographic landscapes and time has the potential to aid policy makers, planners, and local officers to more efficiently allocate scarce capital and human resources to reduce mortality.

Use of social media in natural disaster #NepalQuake2015

Social media especially Facebook and Twitter are very important and useful open source tools before, during, and after the natural disaster to assess the vulnerability before the event, to map preliminary damage, locate victims and critical services especially hospitals during the event, and coordinate response and recovery activities after the disaster occurs. These tools are very useful in an area where long-term data are not available, and critical infrastructure and resources are not mapped. In general, maps and disaster-related information are based on complex methodologies such as geospatial techniques which are not easily readable for the general public because of many associated jargons. These complex information should be processed into simple language first and then communicate to the wider public to be better prepared for any disaster events. Facebook and Twitter could be a useful and efficient tool to communicate such message to the public as nowadays virtually everyone possess hand-held devices with them.

During Nepal earthquake 2015, Facebook and Twitter were widely used for many purposes: first, it was the most important tool to get updates of their beloved ones and immediate family members. Second, it was efficiently used to gather damage information from the distant villages and needy communities for the relief distribution. Third, it was best utilized to gather volunteers to coordinate response and recovery in Kathmandu and most importantly to the rural villages. Facebook groups and twitter hashtags were used to mobilize youth in different activities. Fourth, public were asked to provide, if they have any related to earthquake damages such as damage location, photos, and further information which were later processed by the team of experts to prepare situation maps assisting relief distribution and other response activities. Based on open data voluntarily contributed by the public, satellite images and GIS data, such maps were extremely useful for the government and international aid agencies to coordinate their efforts.

Induced seismicity

Induced seismicity due to deep well injection is a very new topic for me as I had learned only about environmental risks in newspapers. Induced seismicity can create a wide range of problems for engineers, designers, scientists, and the community such as the requirement of new building codes, construction practices, regular monitoring of the seismic activities, and changes in policy at concerned levels. This can result in extra spending of federal monies which otherwise could have been spent on other development projects.

One of the strong argument to back enhanced oil recovery is, it is a huge job driver in some of the states in the US. It is quite true, but we need to carefully think about the effects such as induced seismicity in the vicinities. Such effects, for example, may generate fear in the market and result in an increment of the premium of house insurance which is an extra burden to the homeowners. Also, people prefer stronger buildings to lessen the risks from natural hazards. It is easy to implement new building codes for the newer building, but it would be tough for the existing ones. Then the primary question is who is going to pay for that? If all the profits are taken by the companies it is unfair for the homeowners to pay such external costs. If we can internalize external costs into the system, we can allow enhanced oil recovery.   

DRRM: Landslides and infrastructure in Nepal

For this week DRRM, I am taking an example of Sunkoshi landslide and its impact on infrastructure. Due to heavy rainfall, in the early morning of August 2, 2014, a landslide occurred at Jure village of Sindhupalchowk district, the northern part of the country. It killed 156 people and blocked the Sunkoshi river forming an artificial lake. About 2 dozens houses were swept away by the landslide and 2.6-megawatt hydropower station was completely submerged in the backflow of the river. The lake was about 3 km long and an estimated 7 million cubic meters volume was stored in the lake which lasted for 38 days. It destroyed about 5 kilometers of Araniko highway, the main and only one trade link to China. The average trade from this route is about US$ 400,000 per day which means US$ 15.2 million were lost. It also damaged power supply infrastructure of several hydropower projects inducing more power cut hours in the capital and other parts of the country.

Landslide:
Source: http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2014/08/02/sunkoshi-1/

The artificial lake submerging hydropower station.
Source: https://twitter.com/bewitchkapil

Landslide is the deadliest natural disasters in the country. Moreover, due to fragile geology and human occupation and their interactions have made the middle Himalayan region more vulnerable to natural disasters. Landslides and floods are common phenomena during the monsoon season. Particularly, Sunkoshi valley has experienced numerous large floods and landslides in the last three decades. In addition, the settlement along the highway which runs in the bank of Sunkoshi river has been dramatically increased in last two decades.

A landslide above Jure in 2013; the same landslide after the event on August 2, 2014.
Source: http://www.icimod.org/?q=14356

Although we cannot control natural hazards such as landslides and floods, certainly there are many ways to mitigate their adverse impacts on lives, livelihoods, and physical infrastructures. For this purpose, the information and knowledge from the past events would be of immense help to support disaster risk reduction. Such information would be invaluable for the preparation of hazard map, hazard zonation, and land use planning for the future. Also, with the help of remote sensing and automatic weather station, meteorological and hydrological variables can be measured. Such data can eventually be feed into hydrological models to prepare and install early warning systems in the region. Such activities would increase the community resilience and be prepared for the future disaster to save lives and economy in the tiny Himalayan country.  

DRRM Week 3: Hazard, Risk and Disaster

What is Risk?

The risk in geography is defined as the likelihood of a hazard event occurring and creating the loss. It is the actual exposure of something of human value to a hazard and is often measured as the product of the probability of an event happening and potential loss.

 (Source:http://www.backgroundalpha.com/Images/Combinaison_englais.jpg)

Difference between Hazard and Disaster?

Hazard is a naturally occurring or human induced process which has a potential to create a loss. Disaster is an actual event which has severely impacted people, communities, and systems.  Hazard is primarily understood in a physical dimension whereas disaster has social dimensions. For instance, avalanche or flood in a remote Himalayan mountain is just a hazard but if it impacts downstream population and societies, it becomes a disaster.

Hazard, Risk and Disaster in Nepali context:

Nepal is situated in an active tectonic belt. The Indian tectonic plate is submerging towards Tibetan plate and hence still raising. As it is the youngest mountain in the world, natural processes are active in the region. Hence, landslides, floods, earthquakes, snow avalanche, soil erosion etc. are common which is further intensified by the concentrated south Asian monsoonal process. In addition, more than 30 million people are living in the country. As most of the high mountain regions are not livable due to permanent snow, population are concentrated in marginal locations of hills and southern plains of the country. The dependency of the people in the limited resources has exposed them to disproportionate risk to natural disasters. The recent development pattern such as road construction and infrastructure development has added more risks. These crisscrossed mountains are hampered by such processes. As a result, the landslide is the deadliest disaster in terms of natural hazard mortality while people often consider that earthquake and floods are notorious. The natural process and exposure of the societies to the natural process make the Nepal one of the vulnerable countries in the world.

A rural house destroyed by April 25, 2015 Earthquake

Short-term and long-term physical, environmental, and economic impacts of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami

On March 11, 2011, a massive earthquake of magnitude 9.0 hit the northeast coastal areas of Japan. This earthquake, commonly called as Tohoku earthquake, generated massive tsunami wave resulting coastal inundation in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures, and most importantly, nuclear meltdown of Fukushima nuclear plant. Hence, this triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear) killed so many people. As of August 10, 2015, 15, 892 people are killed, 6,152 people are injured and 2,573 people are still missing¹. About 124,664 buildings were completely devastated whereas 274,641 buildings were partially collapsed having significant impacts on other infrastructures as well. This disaster damaged 116 bridges, 4,198 section of roads, 29 segments of railways and induced 207 landslides in the affected region.

The striking difference of this earthquake is the nuclear power plant crisis. After the Chernobyl disaster in 1984, this event created heated debates about the dependency of energy supply on nuclear power. Also, concerns were raised worldwide regarding the safety standards to combat such mega events. Krausmann and Cruz (2013)² studied the impacts of earthquake and tsunami on chemical industry where they concluded that this event dramatically highlighted the vulnerability to natural hazard triggered technological (Natech) accidents of a well prepared countries like Japan and suggested to revisit the current practices and policies to safeguard surroundings from such facilities. The same report highlights the disproportionate impact of chemical industries in the different location within the affected region. For instance, no lives were lost in Chiba industrial complex while four people were killed in Sendai refinery.

2015 Gorkha Earthquake and its impact on Nepalese economy

On April 25, 2015, Nepal was struck by 7.6 magnitude earthquake during noon having epicenter 75 km west to the capital town Kathmandu. The catastrophic earthquake claimed about 9,000 lives and injured about 23,000 people throughout the country. So far, more than 400 aftershocks greater than 4.0 magnitudes are recorded, including 6.8 on May 12 which further exacerbated the situation. Out of 75 districts, 31 districts are affected and14 districts including capital town are worst hit.

More than a million houses are destroyed by the earthquake. Mostly traditional buildings in the rural districts are reduced to rubble. Historical monuments, temples, and shrines are destroyed. The tourism sector is heavily impacted as there was a big avalanche in the Everest and Langtang regions. The only highway connecting Nepal and China was obstructed causing huge loose on bilateral trades. 

Preliminary seismic risk assessment of Dharan city in eastern Nepal using Landsat images

Poster presentation at 2015 GIS and Remote Sensing Research Symposium, Virginia Tech

April 10, 2015

Nepal lies in the southern slopes of the Himalayan range, which is one of the most active mountain ranges in the world. The Himalayan range was formed due to collisions between the Indian and Tibetan plates. As a result, there is a presence of active faults that pose constant threats of the earthquake in the country. Nepal has a long history of destructive earthquakes each occurring in 100 years interval. The latest hit was on August 20, 1988, which devastated the entire Eastern region and part of the Central regions. It was 6.5 magnitude in Richter scale. It claimed 721 human lives, injured 6,553 people and damaged other developmental infrastructures (Nepal Disaster Report 2011). Earthquake risk and vulnerability assessment are primarily based on two things: location and magnitude of earthquakes, and pattern of human settlement and building types. So far, we have good understanding about the active seismic zones but we cannot accurately predict the magnitude and time of the earthquake. Hence, to minimize the earthquake risk, we need to reduce the social vulnerability related with human settlement and building types. This work aims to understand how the human settlement has been increased in one of the eastern city of Nepal, Dharan, using Landsat sequential images and are exposed to constant threat of earthquake risk.

To download poster pdf: https://goo.gl/fKIMaU

#Hokies4Nepal: Earthquake 2015 fundraising campaign

We, Nepalese Student Association at Virginia Tech are coordinating the fund-raising program at Blacksburg campus to help communities at Nuwakot district. Nuwakot is one of the hardest hit districts, north to capital city Kathmandu. So far, about 1,100 lives are claimed, about 1,500 people injured, and 60,000 houses are completely destroyed.

(Photo: Devi Gnyawali)

The details of the fundraising campaign can be found at 

http://www.nepal.org.vt.edu/nepalearthquake2015/

Scholarships for Risk Masters at Durham University

Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) in conjunction with Collingwood College, Durham University is offering ONE international and FOUR  tuition fee scholarships to pursue Masters degree in Risk and Hazards. The interested candidates who are planning to study in 2014 can apply in one of the courses below.

•  MSc in Risk and Environmental Hazard
•  MA in Risk and Security
• MA in Risk, Health and Public Policy 

Open Society Foundations/Durham University Scholarships

For Afghanistan, Indonesia, Nepal and Palestine!

 

Open Society Foundation (OSF) has announced scholarship for Risk Master’s course (MSc in Risk and Environmental Hazards, MA in Health and Public Policy and MA in Risk and Security) in Durham University , UK. It is a full scholarship program which covers tuition fee, living cost and one time two way international travel costs.

 

If you want to pursue your career in the field of risk and hazards or want to be disaster professional or want to enter into lucrative insurance industry, this could be the gateway. Department of Geography at Durham University is one of the best departments in the world with diverse range of researchers from human to physical geography.

 

Deadline: Feb 15, 2013.

 

Below are the details of the announcements from OSF website. The local contact office for Nepal is Alliance for Social Dialogue (ASD). Details about ASD and application process can also be found here at: http://asd.org.np/en/scholarships/uk/durham-university.

Unforeseen Disaster, Unprecedented Suffering

In late July 2010, Pakistan northern region received heavy monsoonal rainfall which caused recorded flooding in the history. It claimed around 2000 human lives leaving millions homeless and submerging many hectares of fertile land (BBC, Oxfam, Alertnet, Wikipedia). Due to large devastating impact, the UN Secretary termed it ‘a slow-motion tsunami’. Likewise, a cloudburst hit Leh region in Jammu and Kashmir, India and killed 100 people. A large mudslide occurred in Zhoqu county, north western china and claimed 1500 lives which is very uncommon place for such event. Other himalyan countries like Nepal, Bhutan and downstream country Bangladesh also experienced floods.